Monday, December 27, 2004
Democrats Ponder A New "Southern Strategy"
In the aftermath of the 2004 presidential election, Democrats are now saying they need a strategy to put those states "in play", TCP has learned. "Not only did we lose the entire Old South, we lost in West Virginia," one Democratic consultant said, "and that was the one Southern area that didn't even join the Confederacy. Plus, it really doesn't speak well for a party known for championing the poor to lose in Appalachia." Some Democratic strategists cautioned, however, that before the party could "head South" and make inroads in places like West Virginia, it had to first nail down its support in Pennsylvania, not to mention New Jersey.
Still other Democratic strategists view the challenge another way: not state-by-state, but thematically. This view holds that while it may be technically possible to piece together a majority of Electoral College votes without winning a single Southern state, developing themes that appeal to suburban Southerners will also gain the Democrats support in suburban and rural areas in the Midwest and West that will help the Democrats win states there, too--for example, better showings in southern Ohio and exurban Colorado might have tipped those states to the Democrats.
But at least one Democratic strategist says this is all just "whistlin' Dixie". "We've already used every logical argument we can think of to reach the non-urban South: that piety doesn't equal competence; and that voluntarily-assumed wars, and unbalanced budgets, are not sound policies, even conservative ones. It didn't work." The central problem, some political scientists say, is that the national Democratic Party lost support among white Southerners when the party supported the end of the Jim Crow laws in the 1960's. "I'm not sure how the Democrats are supposed to address THAT complaint," the strategist said.
Are the Democrats saying the Republicans have exploited racial issues in the South? "Not at all," says the Democratic strategist. "The Republicans have successfully monopolized the issues of family and faith, which are trump issues for the exurban and rural voter. It seems these voters are just not going to look past these most deeply felt, bedrock values and vote Democratic", the strategist concluded, "unless the Democratic nominee is kind of charming, like Bill Clinton."
Still other Democratic strategists view the challenge another way: not state-by-state, but thematically. This view holds that while it may be technically possible to piece together a majority of Electoral College votes without winning a single Southern state, developing themes that appeal to suburban Southerners will also gain the Democrats support in suburban and rural areas in the Midwest and West that will help the Democrats win states there, too--for example, better showings in southern Ohio and exurban Colorado might have tipped those states to the Democrats.
But at least one Democratic strategist says this is all just "whistlin' Dixie". "We've already used every logical argument we can think of to reach the non-urban South: that piety doesn't equal competence; and that voluntarily-assumed wars, and unbalanced budgets, are not sound policies, even conservative ones. It didn't work." The central problem, some political scientists say, is that the national Democratic Party lost support among white Southerners when the party supported the end of the Jim Crow laws in the 1960's. "I'm not sure how the Democrats are supposed to address THAT complaint," the strategist said.
Are the Democrats saying the Republicans have exploited racial issues in the South? "Not at all," says the Democratic strategist. "The Republicans have successfully monopolized the issues of family and faith, which are trump issues for the exurban and rural voter. It seems these voters are just not going to look past these most deeply felt, bedrock values and vote Democratic", the strategist concluded, "unless the Democratic nominee is kind of charming, like Bill Clinton."
